Hi All!

Welcome back to Goosepoop, newsletter #49!

Today is a special edition of our newsletter, where we preview the playoff field in each division.

In this note, you’ll find the following sections:

Who’s In & Who’s Out: An analysis of the teams in the playoff field, including the teams who missed the playoffs but deserved to be there
Divisional Superlatives: Using our computer model, we rank the teams in each division’s playoff field across a set of categories
Strongest & Weakest Districts: Analysis on where each Division’s bracket is strongest & weakest
Week 10 Big Games: The best Round 1 playoff games happening this week

Let’s get into it!

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Who’s In and Who’s Out

Record Counts of Qualifying Teams

This year’s playoff field features 22 losing records teams, including more 3-6 teams than ever (7 total).

Below, we’ve broken down the count of teams by record:

9 Wins

24 Teams

8 Wins

45 Teams

7 Wins

58 Teams

6 Wins

50 Teams

5 Wins

45 Teams

4 Wins

15 Teams

3 Wins

7 Teams

Teams Who Belonged in the Playoffs

These teams missed the playoffs despite being ranked in the top 32 by our computer model.

Their respective ranking within their division is included in parentheses.

Division 1

Hudsonville (#17)
New Baltimore Anchor Bay (#23)
Holland West Ottawa (#25)
Jenison (#29)
Sterling Heights Stevenson (#30)

Division 2

Harper Woods (#17)
UD Jesuit (#18)
Forest Hills Northern (#26)
Flushing (#27)
Portage Central (#28)
Mattawan (#29)
White Lake Lakeland (#31)
Walled Lake Central (#32)

Division 3

GR Northview (#24)
Sault Ste Marie (#25)
Plainwell (#28)
Middleville Thornapple Kellogg (#32)

Division 4

Wayland (#20)
Lake Fenton (#25)
Allendale (#26)
Holland Christian (#28)

Division 5

Cheboygan (#25)
Benton Harbor (#27)
Flint Powers Catholic (#31)

Division 6

Hillsdale (#17)
Laingsburg (#22)
Blissfield (#26)
Grayling (#30)
Detroit Edison (#31)
Michigan Center (#32)

Division 7

Detroit Loyola (#18)
Jonesville (#20)
Galesburg-Augusta (#21)
Beaverton (#26)
Hanover-Horton (#30)

Division 8

Petersburg-Summerfield (#22)
Sand Creek (#27)
East Jackson (#29)
Saranac (#31)

In all, the MHSAA’s playoff point formula did a pretty good job here, as only 39 teams were errantly left out (~15% of the field). No teams in the top half of their division were left out.

Teams with Losing Records

22 Teams qualified for the playoffs with losing records:

Division 1

Lake Orion, 4-5 (#22)
Grand Blanc, 4-5 (#24)

Division 3

Brother Rice, 3-5 (#7)
East Grand Rapids, 4-5 (#16)
Holly, 4-5 (#38)
Detroit Renaissance, 4-5 (#42)

Division 4

Orchard Lake St Mary’s, 3-5 (#10)
Grand Rapids Christian, 3-6 (#19)
Paw Paw, 4-5 (#35)

Division 6

Lansing Catholic, 4-5 (#12)
Ida, 4-5 (#13)
Montague, 3-6 (#33)

Division 7

SMCC, 4-5 (#11)
Benzie Central, 3-6 (#14)
Delton Kellogg, 4-5 (#32)
Niles Brandywine, 4-5 (#33)
L’Anse, 4-5 (#34)
Burton Bendle, 4-5 (#47)
Southfield Bradford, (3-6) #53)

Division 8

Ishpeming, (4-5) (#12)
Detroit Leadership, (4-5) (#21)
Parkway Christian, (4-5) (#30)

Under the old system, Top 10 teams like Brother Rice and Orchard Lake St Mary’s would have been sitting home this week.

Divisional Superlatives

Per our computer model, below are the best & worst for the teams in each division’s playoff field across a set of categories:

Division 1

Best Team: Rockford
Worst Team: Troy
Best Offense: Rockford
Worst Offense: Troy
Best Defense: East Kentwood
Worst Defense: Dearborn
Undefeated Teams: Rockford (#1), Macomb Dakota (#6), Belleville (#10)
Projected Final: Rockford (#1) vs. West Bloomfield (#4)

Division 2

Best Team: Warren DLS
Worst Team: Warren Cousino
Best Offense: Warren DLS
Worst Offense: Warren Cousino
Best Defense: FHC
Worst Defense: Warren Cousino
Undefeated Teams: FHC (#2), Dexter (#3)
Projected Final: Warren DLS (#1) vs. FHC (#2)

Division 3

Best Team: Walled Lake Western
Worst Team: Auburn Hill Avondale
Best Offense: Walled Lake Western
Worst Offense: Holly
Best Defense: River Rouge
Worst Defense: Auburn Hills Avondale
Undefeated Teams: Mason (#8)
Projected Final: Walled Lake Western (#1) vs. Lowell (#4)

Division 4

Best Team: Whitehall
Worst Team: Garden City
Best Offense: Whitehall
Worst Offense: Garden City
Best Defense: South Christian
Worst Defense: Garden City
Undefeated Teams: Whitehall (#1), South Christian (#2), Riverview (#6), Tecumseh (#8), Redford Union (#18)
Projected Final: Whitehall (#1) vs. Freeland (#3)

Division 5

Best Team: Frankenmuth
Worst Team: SCS South Lake
Best Offense: Gladwin
Worst Offense: Summit Academy
Best Defense: Frankenmuth
Worst Defense: SCS South Lake
Undefeated Teams: Frankenmuth (#1), Gladwin (#2)
Projected Final: Gladwin (#2) vs. Frankenmuth (#1)

Division 6

Best Team: West Catholic
Worst Team: Clawson
Best Offense: Constantine
Worst Offense: Detroit Northwestern
Best Defense: West Catholic
Worst Defense: Clawson
Undefeated Teams: Clinton (#2), Negaunee (#4), Durand (#6), Boyne City (#10), Bishop Foley (#23)
Projected Final: GR West Catholic (#1) vs. Negaunee (#4)

Division 7

Best Team: TC St Francis
Worst Team: Southfield Bradford
Best Offense: TC St Francis
Worst Offense: Southfield Bradford
Best Defense: Hudson
Worst Defense: Southfield Bradford
Undefeated Teams: TC St Francis (#1), Detroit Central (#12), Napoleon (#13)
Projected Final: TC St Francis (#1) vs. Hudson (#2)

Division 8

Best Team: Whiteford
Worst Team: Mt Clemens
Best Offense: Whiteford
Worst Offense: Detroit Community
Best Defense: Iron Mountain
Worst Defense: Mt Clemens
Undefeated Teams: Whiteford (#1), Ubly (#3), Beal City (#5)
Projected Final: Whiteford (#1) vs. Iron Mountain (#2)

Strongest & Weakest Districts

The Toughest & Weakest District in Every Division

Below are the average team ratings within each division’s districts & regionals. In GREEN is that division’s toughest district, and in RED is the weakest district.

In parentheses, we’ve noted each team’s division ranking according to our computer model.

Division 1

Toughest District:

Rockford (#1)
Caledonia (#2)
Grandville (#5)
East Kentwood (#15)

Weakest District:

DCC (#11)
Northville (#34)
Dearborn (#36)
Novi (#39)

Division 2

Toughest District:

Dexter (#2)
Milford (#8)
South Lyon (#6)
South Lyon East (#9)

Weakest District:

SCS Lakeview (#30)
L’Anse Creuse (#36)
Port Huron (#42)
Port Huron Northern (#44)

Division 3

Toughest District

Lowell (#4)
Zeeland West (#6)
St Joseph (#10)
East Grand Rapids (#16)

Weakest District

Mason (#8)
Jackson (#23)
Parma Western (#26)
Sturgis (#31)

Division 4

Toughest District

South Christian (#2)
Unity Christian (#13)
Forest Hills Eastern (#15)
Grand Rapids Christian (#19)

Weakest District

Divine Child (#12)
Redford Union (#18)
Livonia Clarenceville (#32)
Garden City (#50)

Division 5

Toughest District

Gladwin (#2)
Kingsley (#5)
Kingsford (#15)
Ogemaw Heights (#16)

Weakest District

Pontiac Notre Dame Prep (#8)
Detroit Country Day (#9)
Detroit Southeastern (#30)
SCS South Lake (#38)

Division 6

Toughest District

West Catholic (#1)
Constantine (#3)
Watervliet (#20)
Buchanan (#21)

Weakest District

Warren Collegiate (#9)
Bishop Foley (#23)
Detroit Collegiate Prep (#52)
Clawson (#53)

Division 7

Toughest District:

Hudson (#2)
Lumen Christi (#5)
Union City (#16)
Homer (#17)

Weakest District:

SMCC (#11)
Detroit Central (#12)
GP University Liggett (#36)
Southfield Bradford (#53)

Division 8

Toughest District

Iron Mountain (#2)
Ishpeming (#12)
Bark River-Harris (#13)
St Ignace (#18)

Weakest District

Detroit Leadership (#21)
Parkway Christian (#30)
Detroit Community (#41)
Mt Clemens (#43)

Week 10 Big Games

Top 5 Overall Matchups

Caledonia (#2 D1) vs. Grandville (#5 D1)
Rockford (#1 D1) vs. East Kentwood (#15 D1)
West Bloomfield (#4 D1) vs. Cass Tech (#12 D1)
Chippewa Valley (#9 D1) vs. Romeo (#14 D1)
Detroit MLK (#3 D3) vs. River Rouge (#2 D3)

Best Matchup in Every Division

D1: Caledonia (#2) vs. Grandville (#5)
D2: Dexter (#3) vs. Milford (#8)
D3: River Rouge (#2) vs. Detroit MLK (#3)
D4: Freeland (#3) vs. North Branch (#7)
D5: Williamston (#6) vs. Corunna (#12)
D6: Clinton (#2) vs. Ida (#13)
D7: Hudson (#2) vs. Union City (#16)
D8: Iron Mountain (#2) vs. Ishpeming (#12)

Matchups Between Undefeated Teams

None This Week :(

That’s all for today!

Check back here on Thursday for our Preview of each of this week’s big games

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Goosepoop

2022 Playoff Preview Guide