Every Team's Odds of Winning it All
The Week 12 Wrap-Up
Welcome back to Goosepoop, newsletter #55!
Today is our twelfth of fourteen weekly wrap-ups, where we digest all of the week’s high school football action.
In today’s note, we’ve got the following sections:
Big Game Review - a brief review of last week’s top 5 games
Tracking the Champs - game results from each of the State’s 2021 Champions
Biggest Upsets - the largest upsets from around the State
Model Check-In - how our model fared in picking Week 12 games
Survivor Island - a count of the State’s unbeaten teams
Computer Ratings - Week 12 computer ratings for every division
[NEW] State Title Odds - Each remaining team’s probability of winning a State Championship
Next Week - where next week’s biggest games are
Scroll on to check them out, but before you do, if you’re interested in our preview guide from last weekend, we’ve linked it below.
We set spreads for 20+ games last weekend, so you can use this as a refresher for just how right / wrong we were!
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Big Game Review
Last week we featured 5 top games (like we do every week).
Below were the spreads on each:
And here’s how they actually ended up:
South Christian 28, Whitehall 21
Belleville 33, DCC 10
Cass Tech 35, Macomb Dakota 21
Clarkston 36, Rochester Adams 33
Muskegon 27, Zeeland West 20
Only two upsets in this group - Cass Tech was a 1 point underdog but ended up winning by 14, and South Christian was a 7 point underdog that ended up winning by 7.
Elsewhere, we have to give ourselves props for the Clarkston / Adams result. We had Clarkston by 2 & winning 38-36, and the actual result was almost dead-on: Clarkston won by 3, 36-33.
For results from all 32 of last weekend’s games, head on over to the MHSAA site (linked below). They’ve got updated brackets for all 10 divisions:
Tracking the Champs
Let’s check in on how our 2021 State Champs did this past weekend:
D1: Belleville - beat DCC
D2: Warren DLS - beat L’anse Creuse
D3: Detroit MLK - beat Brother Rice
D4: Chelsea (ELIMINATED WEEK 1)
D5: Grand Rapids Catholic Central - beat Portland
D6: Lansing Catholic - lost to West Catholic D7: Pewamo-Westphalia (ELIMINATED WEEK 2) D8: Hudson (ELIMINATED WEEK 2)
With Lansing Catholic dropping out, we are now down to 4 reigning State Champs still in play.
Find out which of these 4 are projected to win this week when our Week 13 preview drops on Thursday!
Of the 32 games last week, there were only 4 upsets (per our model). Here they are ranked, from largest spread to smallest:
Groves over Livonia Franklin (Groves was an 11 point underdog)
South Christian over Whitehall (South Christian was a 7 point underdog)
Edwardsburg over Hastings (Edwardsburg was a 4 point underdog)
Cass Tech over Macomb Dakota (Cass Tech was a 1 point underdog)
Model Check - In
How’d our model do this weekend?
Predicted the correct result in 28 out of 32 games (like we said above, there were 4 upsets).
That’s 87.5% accuracy, which was our best week all season (season to date we are averaging ~83%).
Lastly, if you’d like to track the entirety of our model’s picks, a reader has set up a website to track ours & several others picks (thank you @LoxLoaded!).
Let’s check-in on the State’s 14 remaining unbeaten teams:
Dropping Out: Macomb Dakota (lost to Cass Tech)
GR Forest Hills Central
Dexter and FHC play each other this weekend in one of Week 13’s top games
GR South Christian
Dropping Out: Whitehall (lost to South Christian)
TC St Francis
Ottawa Lake Whiteford
In our final rankings of the year, we’ve got the four remaining teams in each division, ranked from top-to-bottom:
Cass Tech has now jumped Clarkston. If the two teams played today, we’d favor Cass Tech by a point.
Dexter’s lead over FHC has widened a bit - we now have them as 2 points better than the Rangers. A few weeks ago, FHC was ahead of them by a point.
D3 is the closest of all divisions - 8.5 points separates all 4 teams. Should be a great finish here.
With their upset over Whitehall last week, South Christian is your new #1.
Teams #2 - 4 are all neck & neck; a mere 4 points separates the three.
GRCC’s lead over Gladwin continues to widen - they are now a 4 point favorite. The Cougars are also starting to gain ground on Frankenmuth, who’s been #1 for most of the season.
After being ranked neck & neck with Clinton all year, West Catholic has opened up quite the lead on the Red Wolves (and everybody else in the Division).
TCSF’s performance against Ithaca this past weekend has affirmed their rating in this division…. the model would even go so far to rank the Gladiators ahead of South Christian and Detroit MLK.
As to whether that’s correct, we’ll sadly never know!
Ubly continues to gain ground - they smashed Fowler this past weekend, and, as a result, the model has them rated within 6 points of #1 Whiteford.
If you were to ask me where the model is most wrong, this is where I’d point - I don’t think Ubly should be rated below Iron Mountain.
State Title Odds
With computer model ratings & projected opponents in hand, we can now assign a “probability of championship” to each of our 32 remaining teams.
Below is the % chance that each has of taking home the title, as of today. These odds will obviously change next week once we know who’s advancing to the finals.
Here’s what we’ve got in store for Semi Final weekend:
Top 5 Games Overall
D1 #1 Caledonia vs. D1 #4 Clarkston
D1 #2 Belleville vs. D1 #3 Cass Tech
D2 #2 Dexter vs. D2 #3 Forest Hills Central
D3 #1 Detroit MLK vs. D3 #3 Mason
D3 #2 Muskegon vs. D3 #4 DeWitt
Top Game in Every Division
D1: #2 Belleville vs. #3 Cass Tech
D2: #2 Dexter vs. #3 Forest Hills Central
D3: #1 Detroit MLK vs. #3 Mason
D4: #1 South Christian vs. #2 Edwardsburg
D5: #2 GRCC vs. #3 Gladwin
D6: #1 West Catholic vs. #3 Clinton
D7: #1 TC St Francis vs. #3 New Lothrop
D8: #2 Iron Mountain vs. #3 Ubly
Games Between Undefeated Teams
D2 #2 Dexter vs. D2 #3 Forest Hills Central
Find out the spread & over/under on each when we drop our next preview guide this Thursday!
And that’s all for Week 12, guys! Thanks again for taking the time to read this week’s wrap-up.
Don’t forget to subscribe below so you don’t miss out on our Week 13 preview, which is dropping on Thursday.