Not all Schedules are Created Equal (pt.3)

How Michigan's new Playoff Point system affects your team's odds of making the playoffs

Hello all,

Thanks for subscribing to my newsletter. The first couple of posts here will be a rehash of some popular threads I’ve posted on twitter this year.

One disclaimer before you dive in: these first few posts discuss the new playoff point formula put into place for 2021 and how it affects your team’s odds of making the playoffs. You will note that both posts include metrics for gauging how your team’s odds of making the playoffs stacks up to the other teams in its division. These metrics are derived by using the scheduling data available to the public at the time of posting. As schedules are always in flux (especially in today’s day & age of reduced numbers & COVID), several of the numbers in here will have changed slightly since they were posted in late August. Please bear that in mind as you read.

This post is the final one in a 3-part series on the “Average Division Played” metric (ADP) and why its more important than ever for Michigan High School football teams in 2021, given the change in playoff point qualification effective this year (2021). Before you read this post, if you haven’t read Part 1 or Part 2 of the series, I suggest you check those out first.

In Part 2 of these series, we discussed the ADPs of each team in Divisions 1-4 of the MHSAA. Below is a continuation of this discussion, with data on teams in Divisions 5-8

Division 5

Division 6

  • “Privates Prevail” appears here once again: Lansing Catholic has the second highest ADP in this division

  • “Co-Op Conundrums” appear as well: Royal Oak Shrine, who has combined their team with another school, is near the bottom of the division in terms of ADP

  • D6 on the whole has a large ADP spread (Dearborn Robichaud’s ADP is 3.89, Erie Mason’s is 7.22). Will we see a 3-6 (or 2-7) team make the playoffs here?

Division 7

Division 8