As promised in our Week 7 preview last week, we’re sending along a week-in-review email that gives you a quick rundown on how the week played out across the state.
Within, you’ll find sections devoted to the following:
Last week’s big games (Big Game Review)
Tracking remaining unbeaten teams (Survivor Island)
Teams leading the state in various categories (Superlatives)
An update on how the new playoff methodology is playing out (Playoff Picture)
A preview of next week’s biggest / bigger / big games (Week 8 Preview)
Give it a read, and let us know what you think. If there’s a feature you’d like to see added to the note, drop us a comment below:
Week 7 Big Game Review
In our Week 7 preview, we devoted the majority of our analysis to the State’s only 2 games between undefeated teams:
Caledonia (6-0) at Rockford (6-0)
Grand Rapids West Catholic (6-0) at Hudsonville Unity Christian (6-0)
You can read our full preview for yourself, but for a quick recap of how each game played out, see below.
Caledonia at Rockford
In a game that featured a long time delay due to weather, Rockford prevailed 17-14. While this outcome falls along the lines of our pregame analysis, the form does not: both Rockford and Caledonia’s offenses scored well below their season average # of points scored (Rockford averaged 42 while Caledonia averaged 37). So, credit the defenses in this one, who perhaps benefited somewhat from the time delay. With the win, Rockford continues to own one of the state’s best resumes (they are the MHSAA playoff point leader across all divisions), and they will look to win out, with matchups against winless West Ottawa and 3-4 Grand Haven to end the season.
Grand Rapids West Catholic at Hudsonville Unity Christian
Our pregame analysis wasn’t sure how to score this one, as Unity Christian owned all of the better metrics, but West Catholic had played a tougher schedule. In the end, the metrics prevailed, with Unity Christian winning quite handedly, 40-14. With the win, Unity is now in 3rd place of the Division 4 MHSAA playoff points race, trailing only Edwardsburg & Chelsea, who are also both unbeaten and have racked up quite impressive track records themselves.
Other Big Games
Outside of our two heavy hitters, we previewed the 7 games last week with only 1 loss between the two teams involved. In that preview, we discussed how our Playoff Wizard users were predicting the outcomes of each game, with the following graphic shared:
In a very impressive performance, Playoff Wizard users correctly predicted the outcome of each of these games, including calling the 4 paper upsets of Fordson over Churchill, Port Huron over PHN, Berkley over Clarenceville, and Boyne City over Mancelona.
Combining these picks with the two spotlight games above, Playoff Wizard users were undefeated on the weekend, going 8-0. Nice work!
Survivor Island: Unbeaten Teams
Week 7 action gave 9 different teams their first loss of the season, dropping the total count of unbeaten teams from 42 to 33. Here’s a full list of those 33:
Of note is Troy & Bloomfield Hills, who will play each other week 9 in what could be a rare 8-0 vs 8-0 matchup.
Warren De La Salle Collegiate
Hudsonville Unity Christian
Grand Rapids Catholic Central
Kingsley will play Division 7 unbeaten Traverse City St Francis in Week 9.
Jonesville is on a collision course with Division 8 unbeaten Addison in what would be a Week 9 Big 8 / Cascades crossover. Additionally, Lansing Catholic will play Division 7 unbeaten Pewamo-Westphalia in Week 9.
Traverse City St Francis
Outside of Pewamo-Westphalia and TCSF’s aforementioned Week 9 unbeaten matchups, Bad Axe will likely square off with Division 8 unbeaten Ubly in Week 9.
Most Points Scored: Ottawa Lake Whiteford (76) against Loy Norrix
Largest Margin of Victory: River Rouge over University Prep (71-0)
Largest Upset1: Tie. Almont (3-3) over Armada (6-0); Grand Rapids Christian (3-3) over Byron Center (6-0)
Average Points Scored (highest): Gladwin (59.3)
Average Points Scored (lowest): Tie. Hartford and U Prep Science & Math (0)
Average Points Allowed (highest): Coloma (60.3)
Average Points Allowed (lowest): Edwardsburg (4.1)
Average Margin of Victory (highest): Gladwin (50.7)
Average Margin of Victory (lowest): Okemos (-57.4)
Total wins by opponents (highest): Middleville TK (36)
Total wins by opponents (lowest): Tie. Bark River Harris and Mount Pleasant (11)
MHSAA Bonus Points2 (highest): Midland Dow (25.7)
MHSAA Bonus Points (lowest): Bark River Harris (4.42)
Avg. Opponent margin of victory (highest): Ogemaw Heights (18.6)
Avg. Opponent margin of victory (lowest): Bark River Harris (-21.2)
Updated Week 7 playoff point calculations are now on the MHSAA’s site. If your team is currently in the top 32 of total playoff points within their division, they would make the playoffs if they started today.
Given that the methodology for calculating playoff points changed this year, there will be teams with losing records that make the playoffs for the first time in history. Vis versa, some teams with 6+ wins will be left on the outside looking in. Below is a quick snapshot of where this is trending:
Teams w/ losing records currently IN the playoffs:
SCS Lakeview (D2)
Livonia Franklin (D2)
Grosse Pointe South (D2)
Saginaw Heritage (D2)
Auburn Hills Avondale (D3)
South Lyon East (D3)
Battle Creek Central (D3)
Forest Hills Eastern (D4)
Saginaw Swan Valley (D5)
Flint Powers Catholic (D5)
Clinton Twp. Clintondale (D6)
Saginaw Nouvel (D8)
Allen Park Cabrini (D8)
Cass City (D8)
Flint Powers Catholic is the worst record of this bunch, currently sitting at 2-5 yet projected to make the playoffs in D5
Teams w/ winning records currently OUT of the playoffs
Troy Athens (D1)
Harper Woods Chandler Park (D4)
Sault Ste Marie (D4)
Lake Odessa Lakewood (D5)
Kent City (D6)
Lake City (D6)
Adrian Madison (D6)
Royal Oak Shrine (D6)
East Jordan (D7)
Most of the teams above are 4-3; however, there are handful that are currently 5-2 and are still projected to miss the playoffs (bolded)
A Different Way to Look at Playoff Points (cont.)
Outside of how playoff points are shown on the MHSAA site, another interesting way to look at them is to credit teams for the bonus points of opponents they’ve yet to play. We’ve written at length on this subject in a previous post. By doing this analysis this week, the playoff pictures for the following teams would change:
Detroit Cass Tech (moves from #30 to #38 and DOES NOT make the playoffs)
Oxford (moves from #33 to #30 and MAKES the playoffs)
Swartz Creek (moves from #31 to #35 and DOES NOT make the playoffs)
North Farmington (moves from #37 to #29 and MAKES the playoffs)
Forest Hills Eastern (moves from #31 to #33 and DOES NOT make the playoffs)
Niles (moves from from #30 to #34 and DOES NOT make the playoffs)
Allendale (moves from #38 to #32 and MAKES the playoffs)
New Boston Huron (moves from #34 to #31 and MAKES the playoffs)
Carrolton (moves from #31 to #35 and DOES NOT make the playoffs)
Flat Rock (moves from #35 to ##31 and MAKES the playoffs)
Erie Mason (moves from #32 to #33 and DOES NOT make the playoffs)
Hillsdale (moves from #33 to #32 and MAKES the playoffs)
St. Louis (moves from #31 to #33 and DOES NOT make the playoffs)
Niles Brandywine (moves from #35 to #32 and MAKES the playoffs)
Allen Park Cabrini (moves from #32 to #33 and DOES NOT make the playoffs)
Ishpeming (moves from #35 to #32 and MAKES the playoffs)
Week 8 Preview
Finally, below are some of the big games in store this coming week. Similar to last week, we will be releasing a short viewing guide for each later in the week (probably Thursday), so stay tuned for that.
The Biggest Games (games between undefeated teams)
As of now, there are 0 matchups between undefeated teams this week
The Bigger Games (games between teams with only one loss amongst them)
Grand Blanc (7-0) vs. Lapeer (6-1)
Troy (7-0) vs. Berkley (6-1)
Warren De La Salle (6-0) vs. Harper Woods (6-1)
Mount Pleasant (7-0) vs. Bay City Western (6-1)
Grand Rapids Catholic Central (7-0) vs. Cedar Springs (6-1)
The Big Games (games between teams with only one loss each)
Romeo vs. Port Huron Northern
Forest Hills Central vs. Byron Center
Croswell - Lexington vs. Armada
Whitehall vs. Montague
Spring Lake vs. Grand Rapids West Catholic
Charlevoix vs. Mancelona
Centreville vs. Muskegon Catholic Central
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Upsets are measured when a team loses to an opponent with fewer wins than it has. The degree of upset is how many wins fewer that the winning team has than the losing team - the larger this number is, the larger the upset is.
As calculated for purposes of the MHSAA playoff point formula. Bonus points are a good measure of a given team’s strength of schedule, and offer an additional level of insight beyond just the sum total of all opponent wins as bonus points consider the division of the team played. For more detail on bonus points, take a look at our previous post on the subject.